The Existential Moment: French Elections Round One
Here Comes The July 7 Showdown
After The Earthquake
The French are having it out in dramatic fashion while the entire continent watches. For once, existential is the appropriate word: the country has only a few days to decide what kind of place it wants to be and where it wants to go.
The one sure thing at this moment is that, trounced by both Left and Right, the bloom is off the rose for Emmanuel Macron, or as the joke going round has it, Macronism is an anachronism. Even doing better in the first round at 21% after being trounced in the EU elections, Macron’s center cannot hold: apart from bankers and technocrats, fixers and American advisors, he has no friends. He never made any. The second round this Sunday will go on without him. This fate he shares with the milquetoast Socialists, who, along with Sarkozy, managed France to its current state of crisis. He clings to the Palais Elysée for now.
The Big Picture
Colors tell the story. France woke up early this week to a much feared reality: a country that voted overwhelmingly for the Rassemblement National, formerly the National Front, the scary creatures of the far right, now reformed and no longer breathing fire, led by a 28 year old from the Paris banlieu (suburbs). The Le Pens are still backstage but their wild ideas of leaving the Euro or even the EU itself have been quietly shelved, their racist banter left to the minions on social media. Power is within reach and they have made the necessary accommodations — not to the people but to the guardians of orthodoxy in the EU pyramid. Theirs is the purple in the map below and the Nouveau Front Populaire, the alliance of leftwing parties, the brown.
For those who prefer hard data, this is Figaro’s count from Sunday’s snap elections for the Assemblée Nationale’s 577 seats. First round only, so far from definitive. Everything is still very much in play.
Seismic tremors began with elections to the European Parliament, when the right out-performed, causing hissy fits in Brussels. It was an overdue shock to the Union, whose bureaucracy and self-love know no limits. Voting for the French Assembly is First Past The Post, meaning the two largest vote getters in each constituency will face off this Sunday, with the caveat that if a candidate got more than 12.5%, it’s a three way race. The Front Populaire has already called for those who came in third to drop out, a smart tactical move to make local Rightwing or Populist victories less likely.
What was unthinkable is now possible but chances for the Le Pen’s Rassemblement to win an absolute majority of 289 look slim. Without that crushing majority, where are the votes to make Bardella the country’s youngest-ever Prime Minister ? Every time he opens his mouth, he backtracks on what he pledged the day before.
“Bardella Sardines: No scales, no bones, no idea.” Riss, courtesy Canard Enchainé
The Breakdown
This is a protest vote, a once in a lifetime settling of accounts. Farmers, principled conservatives, church goers, French identitarians, not-so-secret fascist sympathizers and anti-immigration fanatics may not agree on much, united only by the sense that their country is being transformed into something they don’t like. They have the numbers and no manifesto from the Front Populaire is going to change their mind. No matter who wins, whether the RN expands on its first round success or the Left surges, expect apocalyptic rhetoric on all sides.
The Left’s non-position on immigration (‘a better welcome’) and radical Islam’s presence in France are the deciding issues that will cost the left victory in this election, condemning them to the weaker hand in negotiation with the Populists of the RN. To put it in Freudian terms, it’s the return of the repressed.
For the rubes of the Rassemblement, the learning curve in the halls of power will be steep; for many this will be their first experience of the Paris merry-go-round and the famous Assembly bar, the longest in the world, will be there to salve their consciences. Winners from the broad left Front Pop may find themselves talking to farmers and other paysans for the first time in their lives, having to listen to diatribes about being screwed by the EU, and being asked why France can’t follow the lead of happier places like Denmark and Norway…
My predictions, based on over a decade living here ? The French will choose an absolute bordel (unholy mess) over the crushing landslides Brits and Americans prefer. Neither team, left or right, has a charismatic leader so the Parliament will be split in two uneven blocs. France will wake up sometime this summer without a Prime Minister. It’s the kind of thing the French can tolerate, not having a functioning Parliament for a few months. Bardella won’t last as PM if he does get in. And then it’s back to Square One.
The Fix Is In
Another joke making the rounds: the EU has been thrown out of the EU for lack of democratic transparency. The organization’s higher echelons are entirely staffed by unpopular, unelected bureaucrats.
In late June leaders from EU centrist parties announced that the detested Ursula von der Leyen (Germany), António Costa (Portugal), and Kaja Kallas (Estonia) would get the nod for the most senior positions at the European Commission, European Council and foreign policy, respectively. A reappointment under fire for von der Leyen, one of the Ukraine and NATO’s most fervent supporters; Kallas, Leyden’s Mini-Me, is unhinged even before she takes office. She’s made no secret of her dreams of dismembering Russia, a super-stunning opening gambit in future negotiations, one sure to raise a few eyebrows in Moscow and Beijing, not to mention the ‘Global South’ which is watching the latest European Waltz to the Inferno with incredulity.
Someone reacted with a bit of fire to all that.
“There are those who argue that citizens are not wise enough to take certain decisions and that oligarchy is the only acceptable form of democracy, but I disagree.” This nameless person called the decision to reappoint Leyen “surreal, without even pretending to discuss the signals from voters.” In her words, the EU was “an invasive bureaucratic giant.” This same person dared to call NATO’s devastating invasion of Libya a ‘mistake’ out loud. I know little about her domestic politics, which I’m sure are messy and include a few Unholy Alliances.
Go ahead, it’s your guess. Who is it ?
Fact-Check Department: the bar in the Palais Bourbon is said to be the world’s longest. I’ve never been. I get my facts from Breslin’s account of the Concorde Wars in the 1970s, when he came to France to raise a stink about the aerial bombardment over Far Rockaway.
Continental Riffs, which lives on Substack and Medium, appreciates the comments and likes and survives through subscriptions and the occasional donation. While I’m aware how sensitive contemporary readers are about disagreement on their Hot Button issues, opinions here remain unadulterated and strategic, to the best of my ability.
